Solution to Puzzle #145: The WHO Puzzle

This was perhaps not an easy problem for children, but I got correct responses from Suman Saraf, Abhinav Jain and Pratik Poddar.

The correct answer is ~0.01%, that is the probability of you having the disease is very low, even if you have tested positive. Here is a link to the video with the explanation:

This is a class of problems in conditional probability commonly known as Bayes’ Theorem. The problem given was similar to the Bayes’ Mammogram Problem, for which the solution is explained at:

An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem

Hope you all enjoyed the puzzle!

 

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